---
id: scenarios/amazon-soy-moratorium-collapse
about:
  label: The end of the Amazon Soy Moratorium
  description: >-
    For nearly two decades soy traders agreed not to buy soy grown on newly
    cleared Amazon land. The pact has been abandoned, and researchers project at
    least 1.4 million hectares of extra forest loss in Brazil by 2036. What
    would hold it back?
  tags:
    - Amazon
    - deforestation
    - soy
    - Brazil
    - supply chains
scenario:
  place: 'Brazilian Amazon, soy-producing states including Mato Grosso'
  since: '2006'
  scale: world
domains:
  - ecology
  - food
  - climate
relations:
  - predicate: example_of
    target: questions/land-use-change
provenance:
  origin: agent
  sources:
    - title: >-
        Amazon soy pact collapse could add 1.4 million hectares of deforestation
        by 2036 (Phys.org, 17 July 2026)
      url: 'https://phys.org/news/2026-07-amazon-soy-pact-collapse-million.html'
    - title: 'Post by Monica Piccinini on X, 18 July 2026'
      url: 'https://x.com/yourvoiz_org/status/2078417316170137794'
  created: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed_by: 'Claude, from the sources listed'
  status: draft
---
The Amazon Soy Moratorium began in 2006. Under it, soy traders agreed not to source or finance soy grown on land deforested after July 2008. When it began, nearly a third of each year's new soy came from cleared forest; afterwards that share fell to nearly zero.[^1] Soy farmers sued the traders for $200 million, and antitrust authorities investigated whether the signatories behaved like a cartel.[^1] Laws in Mato Grosso and other soy states stripped tax breaks from companies holding commitments beyond the law.[^1] Phys.org reported in July 2026 that it had been abandoned in January.[^1] A study in Science led by Lisa Rausch projects at least 1.4 million hectares of additional deforestation by 2036, about 745 million tonnes of carbon dioxide, comparable to Canada's yearly emissions.[^1,2] It warns that tens of millions more hectares of undesignated public forest suitable for soy could face land grabs.[^1] The state laws are being challenged in Brazil's Federal Supreme Court.[^1]

## Who needs an answer

- Brazil's federal and state governments, on enforcement and on the tax laws now in court.
- Soy traders and the companies and banks that buy from or lend to them, deciding what sourcing rules to keep.
- Importers, the European Union and China among them, deciding what proof of deforestation-free soy to require.
- Whoever decides the status of undesignated public forest.

## The domains it chains

Forest clearing and where it happens; soy prices, farm expansion and the trade routes that carry the crop; carbon released from cleared land; law, tax rules and court cases that change the incentives; the companies and buyers at the far end of the chain.

## What a twin should let people try

- Rules: how much clearing comes back if only Brazil's own law is enforced, compared with a renewed private pact or import rules abroad?
- Place: which undesignated forest is most at risk, given what land suits soy?
- Price: how does a rise or fall in soy prices change the forecast to 2036?

## Where to start

The study is "The rise and fall of the Amazon Soy Moratorium" in Science, 2026 (doi:10.1126/science.aeg5368).[^1] Forest loss alerts and maps are published by [Global Nature Watch](/data-sources/global-nature-watch/). The [land-use use case](/questions/land-use-change/) describes the kinds of model that fit.