---
id: scenarios/saudi-oil-red-sea-route
about:
  label: Saudi oil and the Red Sea route
  description: >-
    With Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia moved its oil exports to the Red Sea, and
    in September 2026 the Houthis seized islands and a port near the Bab
    el-Mandab strait. Which routes are left for Saudi crude to reach Asia?
  tags:
    - Red Sea
    - Bab el-Mandab
    - Yemen
    - Saudi Arabia
    - oil
    - shipping
scenario:
  place: 'Southern Red Sea and the Bab el-Mandab strait, off Yemen'
  since: '2026'
  scale: world
domains:
  - energy
  - mobility
  - people
relations:
  - predicate: needs
    target: engines/portolan
provenance:
  origin: agent
  sources:
    - title: >-
        Yemen's Houthis attack Saudis, seize crucial Red Sea islands (DW, 14
        September 2026)
      url: >-
        https://www.dw.com/en/yemens-houthis-attack-saudis-seize-crucial-red-sea-islands/a-79263838
    - title: 'Portolan: world trade routes, tariffs and maritime chokepoints'
      url: 'https://portolan.cc'
    - title: 'Strait of Hormuz: status and shipping traffic | Portolan'
      url: 'https://portolan.cc/chokepoints/hormuz'
  created: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed_by: 'Claude, from the sources listed'
  status: draft
---
Saudi Arabia's route out of the closed [Strait of Hormuz](/scenarios/strait-of-hormuz-closure/) ran south down the Red Sea and out through the Bab el-Mandab strait.[^1] Its East-West pipeline to the Red Sea is one of only two that bypass Hormuz.[^3] Yemen's Houthi rebels have declared a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. On 14 September DW reported that, the week after seizing Mayun Island and the port of Mokha, which it said cut off the alternative route, they had announced the capture of Greater and Lesser Hanish islands in the southern Red Sea. DW reported that the only secure routes left for Saudi oil to reach Asian markets were the Suez Canal or the long way around the Cape of Good Hope.[^1] Yemen's civil war, dormant for four years, had restarted, with Houthi missile and drone attacks on Saudi military targets and, by the Houthis' count, more than 300 Saudi airstrikes in five days.[^1] In the week to 18 October, IMF PortWatch's satellite ship-tracking, as Portolan shows it, counted 26 ships a day through Bab el-Mandab, down 27% on a year earlier.[^2]

## Who needs an answer

- Saudi and other exporters choosing between the Red Sea, Suez and the Cape, each with its own cost and time.
- Refiners and governments in Asia that buy Saudi crude and need to know when it will arrive.
- Shipping companies and insurers deciding whether to send ships past Yemen at all.
- Humanitarian agencies in Yemen, where the war has restarted around the same coast.

## The domains it chains

Oil exports and the pipeline that feeds the Red Sea; ship routing past a war zone and the extra days of sailing around Africa; prices and supply in the countries that buy the oil; and the people of Yemen's coast, where the fighting is.

## What a twin should let people try

- Rerouting: if Bab el-Mandab is unsafe, how much Saudi crude can go north through Suez, how much must go around the Cape, and how many more tankers does that take?
- Two closures at once: with both Hormuz and Bab el-Mandab restricted, how much Gulf oil can reach Asia at all?
- Timing: how long would supply in Asia take to recover if either strait reopened?

## Where to start

[Portolan](/engines/portolan/) shows ships a day from IMF PortWatch for Bab el-Mandab, Suez and Hormuz side by side, with the alerts in force at each.[^2]