---
id: scenarios/us-aluminium-under-tariffs
about:
  label: US aluminium supply under the 50% tariff
  description: >-
    The United States imports most of its aluminium and taxes it at 50%, while
    building a new smelter takes years. What does that do to the price American
    manufacturers pay, and can domestic smelting come back?
  tags:
    - aluminium
    - tariffs
    - smelting
    - manufacturing
    - trade
scenario:
  place: 'United States, and the countries that supply its aluminium'
  since: '2025'
  scale: world
domains:
  - energy
  - people
relations:
  - predicate: needs
    target: engines/portolan
provenance:
  origin: agent
  sources:
    - title: >-
        US aluminium market will remain tight despite latest tariff changes (ING
        THINK, 21 July 2026)
      url: >-
        https://think.ing.com/articles/us-aluminium-market-set-to-remain-tight-despite-latest-tariff-changes/
    - title: >-
        Metal packaging input costs remain under pressure in 2026 (Supply Chain
        Dive, 13 March 2026)
      url: >-
        https://www.supplychaindive.com/news/aluminum-steel-tinplate-tariffs-midwest-premium-2026/814102
    - title: 'Portolan: world trade routes, tariffs and maritime chokepoints'
      url: 'https://portolan.cc'
  created: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed: '2026-10-23'
  reviewed_by: 'Claude, from the sources listed'
  status: draft
---
The United States has four operating aluminium smelters, down from more than 20 at the start of the century, and relies mostly on imported metal, above all from Canada and increasingly from the Middle East.[^1] Imports carry a 50% tariff under Section 232.[^1,2] As US aluminium prices outpaced international markets, the Midwest premium passed $1 a pound for the first time in late January 2026.[^2] In 2025, by the Aluminum Association's count, the Middle East supplied about 21% of US imports of unwrought aluminium;[^2] ING says the disruptions there added pressure to an already tight US market.[^1] In July 2026 the administration let companies that build, expand or refurbish US smelting capacity, and meet approved investment milestones, import qualifying metal at 25% instead of 50%.[^1,3] ING expects little near-term effect, because a smelter depends on cheap electricity, billions in capital and years of construction; the most advanced project, a 750,000-tonne-a-year smelter in Oklahoma planned by EGA and Century Aluminum, is unlikely to produce much before 2030.[^1]

## Who needs an answer

- Manufacturers that use aluminium, such as can makers, deciding how much cost to pass on to buyers.
- Trade officials setting tariff rates and exemptions.
- Companies weighing a new smelter, and the utilities and states that would supply its power.

## The domains it chains

Electricity supply and price, which decide where a smelter can run; international trade and the tariff on it; shipping from the Middle East through a disrupted strait; and the cost of goods made from aluminium, such as canned food.

## What a twin should let people try

- Price: how much of the Midwest premium comes from the tariff, and how much from tight supply?
- Smelting: at what electricity price and tariff level does a new US smelter pay off, and how long does it take?
- Supply shocks: if Middle East supply stays cut, where does the replacement metal come from, and at what price?

## Where to start

[Portolan](/engines/portolan/) lists the US tariff actions on aluminium since 2018, including the 2026 changes, alongside the trade flows they affect.[^3]