CADI, Climate-Driven Agricultural Decline Index

CADI maps where climate change has already cut, and is expected to cut, the amount of food a place can grow. The team is Laura Mayoral, Hannes Mueller, Björn Komander and János Szentistványi, at the Institute for Economic Analysis (IAE-CSIC), the Barcelona School of Economics, IIIA-CSIC, RMIT University Melbourne and IDEA.

For each grid cell of about 10 km the project computes attainable yield, the most a location could produce under its biophysical conditions, using the Global Agro-Ecological Zones model (GAEZ v5). The crop mix in each cell is held fixed at the baseline, so only climate varies; this is a no-adaptation assumption. Attainable production for the main crops is converted to calories and reported as the number of people a cell could feed per year at 2,000 calories a day. Observed change compares the 1981–2000 climate with 2001–2020, using the AgERA5 weather data set. Projections run from 2021 to 2100 relative to the 2001–2020 baseline under the IPCC scenarios SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5.

The site presents the results as an interactive map explorer with a slider over time periods, switchable between observed and projected change and between absolute and percentage values. It is aimed at policymakers, development practitioners and researchers planning adaptation. The site states no download, licence or API for the underlying grid.

The key findings reported on the site include that more than 640 million people live in agricultural areas where the number of people that can be fed has fallen by more than 10% over 30 years, and that by 2041–2060 under SSP3-7.0 about 49% of the world's population would live in cells with at least a 5% decline. A full paper is described as forthcoming; the site is dated 2026. In this wiki's stack it is a data layer.