Warming thresholds of climate tipping elements

Global warming is 1.3 °C; 5 of 16 past their minimum of the tipping elements in Armstrong McKay et al. (2022). Each bar runs from the minimum to the maximum estimated threshold.

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Warming thresholds of climate tipping elements

1.3 °C · 5 of 16 past their minimum

0 °C2 °C4 °C6 °C8 °C10 °CGreenland ice sheetGreenland Ice Sheet (collapse): 0.8 to 3 °C, central 1.5 °CWest Antarctic iceWest Antarctic Ice Sheet (collapse): 1 to 3 °C, central 1.5 °CTropical coral reefsLow-latitude Coral Reefs (die-off): 1 to 2 °C, central 1.5 °CPermafrost abrupt thawBoreal Permafrost (abrupt thaw): 1 to 2.3 °C, central 1.5 °CBarents sea iceBarents Sea Ice (abrupt loss): 1.5 to 1.7 °C, central 1.6 °CSubpolar gyreLabrador-Irminger Seas / SPG Convection (collapse): 1.1 to 3.8 °C, central 1.8 °CMountain glaciersMountain Glaciers (loss): 1.5 to 3 °C, central 2 °CWest African monsoonSahel and W. African Monsoon (greening): 2 to 3.5 °C, central 2.8 °CEast Antarctic basinsEast Antarctic Subglacial Basins (collapse): 2 to 6 °C, central 3 °CAmazon rainforestAmazon Rainforest (dieback): 2 to 6 °C, central 3.5 °CAMOCAtlantic M.O. Circulation (collapse): 1.4 to 8 °C, central 4 °CBoreal forest diebackBoreal Forest (southern dieback): 1.4 to 5 °C, central 4 °CBoreal forest expansionBoreal Forest (northern expansion): 1.5 to 7.2 °C, central 4 °CPermafrost collapseBoreal Permafrost (collapse): 3 to 6 °C, central 4 °CArctic winter iceArctic Winter Sea Ice (collapse): 4.5 to 8.7 °C, central 6.3 °CEast Antarctic iceEast Antarctic Ice Sheet (collapse): 5 to 10 °C, central 7.5 °Cnow 1.3 °C

Bars run from the minimum to the maximum estimated threshold, the dot at the central estimate; highlighted bars have their minimum already passed, the vertical line is today's warming from the global temperature series. Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J. and Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950 · read from this copy · json · Paper: 'Copyright © 2022 the authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original US government works.' Repository reuse terms: https://www.uu.nl/en/university-library/license-and-reuse-conditions · Literature-based expert estimates of the global warming at which each element tips: the paper calls crossing a tipping point 'possible' beyond its minimum temperature threshold and 'likely' beyond its central estimate, with the maximum the top of the estimated range.

Citations: Armstrong McKay, D. I., Staal, A., Abrams, J. F., Winkelmann, R., Sakschewski, B., Loriani, S., Fetzer, I., Cornell, S. E., Rockström, J. and Lenton, T. M. (2022). Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points. Science 377(6611), eabn7950. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.abn7950

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